Grayscale Research has issued a dual-scenario warning for Bitcoin price. The firm says the outcome depends on two factors: whether the CLARITY Act clears the Senate and whether the Federal Reserve raises interest rates this year. Grayscale’s head of research, Zach Pandl, has laid out both a bullish and a bearish path for the asset.
Grayscale’s head of research
Bitcoin has slipped below $60,000 from its October 2025 peak of around $125,000. That marks a drop of more than 50%. The warning from Grayscale comes at a time when the crypto market is under pressure from both regulatory and monetary risks.
CLARITY Act Faces a Narrow Window in the Senate
The CLARITY Act is now formally on the Senate Legislative Calendar. On June 1, 2026 the bill was put on the calendar after it was approved by the Senate Banking Committee on May 14 by a vote of 15-9.
The bill has not been scheduled for a floor vote since being added to the calendar; there have been no debates or votes yet as the bill now needs to be set by leadership. 60 votes are necessary to prevent a filibuster and at this point there will need to be at least seven Democrats needed for additional support in addition to the Republicans.
Currently, 53 Republicans are serving in the Senate. Bipartisan talks collapsed on June 9 without agreement. Republicans and the White House withdrew a provision that would have let state attorneys general take civil action tied to President Trump’s crypto business interests. Democrats rejected the narrowed alternative offered in its place.
Galaxy Research has cut the CLARITY Act’s passage odds to about 50-50 for 2026. Prediction market traders have priced the bill’s passage odds near 48%, down from 74% a month ago.
Supporters are keeping their eye on a window of Aug. 7 as the next opportunity for lawmakers to support or pass the bill before the long August break for members to go back to their respective states and constituents to build support and vote on it July 13.
Analysts cautioned prior to Aug 2 that the chances of passage would plummet significantly in a post-recess environment. Sen. Cynthia Lummis cautioned that if action isn’t taken by lawmakers, crypto comprehensive legislation may not pass until 2030. She posted on X: “We are closer to a functioning digital asset market structure than we have ever been. Now is not the time to flinch.”
https://x.com/SenLummis/status/2061787917119594851
What the CLARITY Act Means for Bitcoin Price
The CLARITY Act would create a federal market structure framework for digital assets. It divides oversight between the SEC and the CFTC. For the Bitcoin price, the bill matters because it removes one of the biggest overhangs on institutional demand: regulatory uncertainty.
The Blockchain Association called the Senate Banking Committee vote a defining moment. The group said that lasting digital asset policy must be built on a bipartisan foundation. Coinbase also described the CLARITY Act as very close to getting done.
Grayscale’s base case holds that if the CLARITY Act passes, Strategy stabilizes its balance sheet, and the Fed holds rates, Bitcoin price may already be near its cycle low. That read is optimistic and hinges on legislative progress that remains far from certain. The CLARITY Act is the clearest regulatory path the market has right now.
Grayscale’s Bull and Bear Case at a Glance
| Factor | Bullish Scenario | Bearish Scenario |
| CLARITY Act | Passes Senate in 2026 | Stalls or fails in 2026 |
| Strategy / DATs | Balance sheet stabilizes | Further deleveraging |
| Federal Reserve | Holds rates steady | Raises rates on sticky inflation |
| Grayscale’s view | Bitcoin price near cycle low | Bitcoin falls moderately further |
Federal Reserve Policy Adds Pressure on Bitcoin Price
The Federal Reserve is the second major risk in Grayscale’s outlook for Bitcoin price. The markets have begun to price in the chance that the Fed will be hiking rather than cutting interest rates this year, as markets are pricing in the chance that the Fed will be hiking rather than cutting interest rates this year ever since Donald Trump appointed relatively hawkish Kevin Warsh over more dovish Kevin Hassett.
Citadel Securities stated last week that the Fed might hike as soon as the September 2026 deadline. If inflation remains sticky, the cash position in Treasuries could become more alluring to investors over that for holding the cryptocurrency, as the coin doesn’t give yield. Spot gold was also down around 25% from its highs amid the same repricing. Grayscale’s Pandl put it plainly: “If downside risks materialize, we could see Bitcoin fall moderately further.”
Key Risk Factors for Bitcoin Price
- CLARITY Act passage odds sit near 50-50, per Galaxy Research
- Senate floor window is limited to July 13 through August 7
- The Fed is seen as more likely to hike than cut in 2026
- Citadel Securities flags a possible rate hike as early as September 2026
- Bipartisan talks on ethics rules and law enforcement provisions have collapsed
Strategy’s Balance Sheet Adds to the Downside Case
Strategy remains a central variable in Grayscale’s warning on Bitcoin price. The firm’s Bitcoin position moved about $12 billion below cost after the recent price drop. MSTR has also traded below the value of its own Bitcoin holdings.
Grayscale said further deleveraging by Strategy or other digital asset treasury firms could add more selling pressure on Bitcoin price. That is not a theoretical concern. It is an active risk that traders are already pricing in.
Prior cycles saw Bitcoin fall around 80% from peak to trough. Grayscale does not expect a drawdown that deep this time, citing a more muted bull market and stronger institutional demand. Still, the firm is not calling a bottom yet. The Bitcoin price path from here rests heavily on what happens in the Senate and at the Fed.
Also Read: Bitcoin Stuck in Range: Will a Breakdown Trigger the Next Big Move in 2026?
FAQs
Q1: Why does Grayscale think Bitcoin price could fall further?
Grayscale points to a stalled CLARITY Act, Strategy’s balance sheet strain, and possible Fed rate hikes as the three main risks.
Q2: What needs to happen for Bitcoin price to bottom out?
The CLARITY Act would need to pass, Strategy would need to stabilize, and the Fed would need to hold rates steady.
Q3: How does the CLARITY Act affect Bitcoin price?
It sets federal market structure rules, cutting the regulatory uncertainty that has weighed on institutional demand for years.
Q4: When could the Fed raise rates next?
Citadel Securities has flagged a possible hike as early as September 2026 if inflation stays elevated.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and is not financial or investment advice. Colitco encourages readers not to invest in any particular cryptocurrency or digital asset. Readers should DYOR and consult their own qualified financial advisor. References to bitcoin, Grayscale, strategy, Coinbase, Galaxy Research, Citadel Securities, and the CLARITY Act is solely for news and informational purposes.
Sources
https://crypto.news/grayscale-says-bitcoin-could-fall-further-if-clarity-stalls-and-fed-hikes/
https://www.ccn.com/news/crypto/bitcoin-price-fall-fed-raises-rates-grayscale-how-low/
