CryptoQuant’s Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator flipped green on 12 May 2026, marking the first Bitcoin bull market signal of this kind since March 2023. The indicator is built on CryptoQuant’s Profit and Loss Index, which aggregates the MVRV ratio, NUPL, and a comparison of Long-Term Holder and Short-Term Holder SOPR ratios.
Figure 1: CryptoQuant branding image [Courtesy: CryptoQuant]
Bitcoin was trading above US$80,000 when the signal triggered, having rebounded approximately 35% from February 2026 lows of US$60,000.
The CryptoQuant Bitcoin market cycle shift has drawn attention from analysts globally, with many pointing to the historical significance of the indicator while urging caution. The last confirmed green reading in March 2023 preceded a sustained bull run that took Bitcoin from roughly US$20,000 to an all-time high above US$73,000 by April 2024.
CryptoQuant’s Bull-Bear Indicator Signals an Early Regime Shift
CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno wrote on X that the shift “often suggests that the worst phase of the correction has already passed and that market structure is beginning to recover.”
The Bitcoin bull market signal emerged after a sustained period of bear-market behaviour following Bitcoin’s correction from prior highs. The CryptoQuant Bitcoin market cycle indicator held its green reading continuously from March 2023 through August 2024, a period covering one of Bitcoin’s most significant sustained rallies.
Moreno also flagged several secondary metrics showing exhaustion in the current setup. Bitcoin must decisively break the US$82,000 resistance level, which has rejected multiple rally attempts, before the signal can be considered confirmed by price action.
Analysts Flag the March 2022 Exception as a Key Caution Signal
Analysts are not calling a confirmed bull market on the basis of this signal alone. The following context is critical for interpreting the current CryptoQuant Bitcoin market cycle reading:
- The March 2022 green signal is the key historical exception, when the indicator briefly turned bullish before Bitcoin extended its downtrend well into 2023
- Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics, described the indicator as a regime-shift tool rather than a predictive crystal ball
- Greenspan noted the indicator has been “most useful for identifying when Bitcoin stops behaving like a bear-market asset”
- Sustained demand, liquidity, and price acceptance at higher levels are still required before the Bitcoin bull market signal can be treated as validated
- The US$82,000 resistance level remains the critical price action threshold for confirmation
Bitcoin ETF Inflows 2026 and On-Chain Data Support the Regime Shift Thesis
Supporting data adds meaningful weight to the CryptoQuant Bitcoin market cycle reading. Bitcoin ETF inflows in April 2026 reached US$2.44 billion, the strongest single-month institutional accumulation since October 2025.
This level of Bitcoin ETF inflows 2026 suggests institutional participants are actively positioning ahead of any confirmed breakout.
Figure 2: Bitcoin token illustration highlighting renewed institutional interest and Bitcoin ETF inflows in 2026 [Courtesy: Reuters]
Glassnode’s RHODL ratio currently sits at 4.5, the third-highest reading in Bitcoin’s history. The only comparable prior readings occurred at the 2015 and 2022 cycle bottoms, adding further on-chain credibility to the argument that a structural low may already be in place.
Key Price Levels Analysts Are Watching for Confirmation
Several prominent analysts have offered specific price targets in the context of the current Bitcoin bull market signal:
- Arthur Hayes, CIO of Maelstrom, argued Bitcoin had already found its cycle bottom at US$60,000 earlier in 2026
- Hayes identified US$90,000 as the threshold at which any rally would turn explosive toward the prior all-time high of US$126,000
- Bitget Wallet analyst Lacie Zhang said Bitcoin is “positioned for a potential breakout toward US$85,000 to US$90,000”
- Zhang cited strong institutional support and continued Bitcoin ETF inflows 2026 as the key drivers behind the outlook
- The US$82,000 resistance level remains the immediate hurdle before the signal can be considered price-confirmed
Industry Outlook
Bitcoin’s on-chain metrics, institutional ETF inflows, and the CryptoQuant Bitcoin market cycle indicator are all pointing in the same direction for the first time since early 2023.
The convergence of these signals is drawing renewed attention from both retail and institutional participants.
However, the broader macro environment, including interest rate expectations and geopolitical uncertainty, continues to play a role in determining whether the Bitcoin bull market signal translates into a sustained rally or another false start similar to March 2022.
Future Direction and Impact on Bitcoin Investors
The CryptoQuant Bitcoin market cycle flip and the broader supporting data carry several near-term implications for investors tracking Bitcoin:
- The Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator has entered green territory for the first time since March 2023, signalling a potential end to bear-market behaviour
- Bitcoin was trading above US$80,000 at the time of the signal, up approximately 35% from February 2026 lows of US$60,000
- Bitcoin ETF inflows 2026 reached US$2.44 billion in April alone, the strongest institutional accumulation month since October 2025
- Glassnode’s RHODL ratio at 4.5 represents the third-highest reading in Bitcoin’s history, with prior comparable readings at cycle bottoms
- US$82,000 remains the key resistance level to watch for price-action confirmation of the Bitcoin bull market signal
- US$90,000 is identified by Arthur Hayes as the threshold for an explosive move toward the prior all-time high of US$126,000
- The March 2022 false signal remains the primary cautionary precedent for analysts assessing the current setup
ALSO READ: Michael Saylor Addresses Strategy’s Bitcoin Sale Plan and STRC Mechanics
Frequently Asked Questions
Q1. What is the CryptoQuant Bitcoin market cycle indicator?
Ans. It is an on-chain indicator that tracks Bitcoin market trends using metrics like MVRV, NUPL, and SOPR ratios to identify possible market cycle shifts.
Q2. When did the Bitcoin bull market signal trigger?
Ans. The indicator turned bullish on 12 May 2026, marking its first green signal since March 2023.
Q3. What happened after the last green signal in March 2023?
Ans. Bitcoin entered a major rally, climbing from around US$20,000 to above US$73,000 by April 2024.
Q4. What are the Bitcoin ETF inflows for 2026 so far?
Ans. Strong ETF inflows suggest rising institutional interest and growing confidence in Bitcoin’s market outlook.
Q5. What price level would confirm the bull signal?
Ans. Analysts are closely watching the US$82,000 level, as a breakout above it could confirm stronger bullish momentum.
Disclaimer
This article is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. All content is based on publicly available reporting. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and involve significant risk. Readers should conduct their own research and seek independent financial advice before making any investment decisions. Crafmin does not hold any position in the assets or organisations mentioned.
Sources
https://crypto.news/cryptoquant-signal-flips-bitcoin-to-bull-territory/
https://cryptoquant.com/insights/quicktake/6a022eeebca224364eeb20bd
