Bitcoin continues to defy expectations, trading near all-time highs despite no recent rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve. At press time, BTC traded at $105,325, signalling strong momentum in the current Bitcoin market outlook. Analyst Josh Olszewicz believes this strength ties back to one fragile macroeconomic support—liquidity.
In his “Macro Monday” update on 16 June, he warned that any disruption in liquidity could derail the ongoing BTC rally forecast.
Liquidity: The Core of the Bitcoin Price Prediction
Despite hawkish Fed policies, global liquidity has quietly started to tick upward again. Olszewicz highlights “When reverse repo drains or TGA spends down, it helps liquidity,” he said. Although both are currently stable, their upward trends offer hope for further Bitcoin gains. This liquidity boost forms the backbone of the current bitcoin price prediction, according to Olszewicz.
Macro Metrics BTC Depends On Are Shifting
Markets are not expecting rate cuts during the June or July FOMC meetings. Yet, global rate hike cycles are showing signs of reversal, particularly in non-US economies. Olszewicz states that “There has been liquidity going up,” reinforcing the short-term bullish case. He warns, however, that any sudden reversal—such as an unexpected Fed tightening—could spell trouble for crypto.
“If liquidity falls, crypto could struggle,” he cautioned in his macro outlook.
Technical Setup Favouring a $150K Bitcoin Target
From a technical analysis perspective, the current Bitcoin price structure appears solid. Bitcoin continues to reclaim key resistance levels without any major breakdowns. “We’re hovering at all-time highs. That’s what you want to see,” said Olszewicz.He outlined $97,980 as the key downside risk if sentiment turns negative. On the upside, he sees $122,000 as the next checkpoint—and potentially BTS $150K thereafter.
Inflation Stability Still Missing in the Equation
Despite encouraging trends, the Fed remains hesitant due to unstable inflation data. While alternative metrics show inflation near 2%, official CPI and PCE remain volatile. For Jerome Powell to cut rates, the Fed needs stable 2% inflation for three to six months. “You do not want 2.3 one month, 2.6 the next,” said Olszewicz. Until such stability emerges, the central bank will likely hold interest rates steady.
August and the Debt Ceiling: A Key Flashpoint
Olszewicz flagged August as a critical month for the Bitcoin market outlook. If the US debt ceiling isn’t raised, liquidity may tighten due to a TGA balance surge. He warned that “If this goes to zero,” referring to the reverse repo facility, “they may reinstate QE.” High debt and deficits may drive investors toward fixed supply assets like Bitcoin. That situation could further reinforce a bullish BTS price prediction heading into Q4 2025.
Conclusion: Bitcoin Price Prediction Hinges on Liquidity
Bitcoin is holding firm at high levels without support from interest rate cuts. This resilience reflects shifting investor psychology and growing comfort with delayed easing. However, the entire rally rests on rising liquidity, making it the central macro risk to monitor. If liquidity continues to grow, a move to Bitcoin $150K remains a realistic target. But if it reverses, the BTC rally forecast may collapse—and so might the broader crypto cycle.
