June tends to be the month where Bitcoin takes a hit, and if it stumbles again this year, it’ll be staring down its fourth summer in a row with red ink. On the flip side, the S&P 500 is hoping to keep its streak alive and notch up a third consecutive summer rally.
Image 1: (Source: Coinpedia)
Looking back at the past five years, the S&P 500 has had more wins than losses in the July and August stretch — bagging eight positive months compared to Bitcoin’s six. But come June, the two charts start to head in different directions. Bitcoin has only managed one June in the black since 2020, whereas the S&P 500 has had just two Junes in the red over that same stretch. Clearly, June is a bit of a spanner in the works for Bitcoin, while the stock market tends to hold its ground better.
More Than Just Seasonal Weather for Bitcoin
Bitcoin’s summer slumps aren’t just about the time of year; they’re mostly driven by crypto-specific shake-ups and wider economic currents. The mining bans in China, Bitcoin’s halving events (where miners get fewer coins), and inflation hitting hard after the pandemic have all taken a toll.
Taking a look at the past few summers gives us a better sense of how these forces have played out for Bitcoin and the S&P 500.
#BTC JULY IS THE FOCUS?
There’s a big narrative push right now about BTC being bad during the summer.
I do not like time-guessing.
However, with congruency, this pattern would wrap up start of July.
If it decides to liquidity sweep after 5 (blue circle) then mid/late July. pic.twitter.com/YzU3xjUSHA
— Norris Digital Assets ⚡️ (@AssetsNorris) June 22, 2025
The Summers That Shaped Bitcoin and Stocks
In the heat of mid-2020, Bitcoin was dusting itself off after taking a beating from the early COVID storm. While it dipped a touch in June, it was heading upwards overall, pushing past $10,000 for the first time since the early 2020 crash. Thanks to governments throwing cash at the economy and rock-bottom interest rates, investors were keen as mustard to take on risk. This lifted both stocks and crypto, with the S&P 500 closing every month from June to August in positive territory. Meanwhile, the crypto scene was buzzing with “DeFi Summer”, a time when yield farming took centre stage.
Fast-forward to 2021, and things looked quite different. China came down like a ton of bricks on Bitcoin mining and trading, shaking the market to its core and sending Bitcoin into a tailspin in June. But by July, the clouds started to part — heavy hitters like Elon Musk, Jack Dorsey, and Cathie Wood stepped in, backing crypto and breathing fresh life into the space. That summer ended with Bitcoin up nearly 9%, its last winning summer so far.
Image 2 (Source: CryptoWeekly)
The summer of 2022 was no walk in the park — everyone was feeling the pinch. The collapse of Terra in May sent shockwaves through crypto, followed by liquidity issues at Celsius and the implosion of hedge fund Three Arrows Capital. On the regulatory front, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission put a dampener on things by rejecting Grayscale’s bid to turn its Bitcoin trust into a spot ETF. With inflation climbing to heights not seen in four decades, the Fed slammed the brakes with sharp rate hikes, shaking consumer confidence to its core. Despite the rough waters, Big Tech helped the S&P 500 bounce back strongly in July. But August saw optimism take a dive again after Fed Chair Jerome Powell doubled down on rate hikes. That summer, Bitcoin and stocks largely marched in step.
Come June 2023, Bitcoin threw a curveball and rallied 12%, thanks to a wave of ETF applications, including one from BlackRock, a heavyweight with a near-perfect approval track record. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 struggled as the Fed held back on rate hikes but kept a hawkish tone. Tech earnings helped stocks rebound in July, but August saw both Bitcoin and equities end in the red amid ongoing concerns about Fed policy and China’s property woes. A court win for Grayscale offered Bitcoin a brief boost but wasn’t enough to save the summer.
June 2024 dealt Bitcoin another blow, with weak ETF flows, miner selling after the April halving, and currency market moves weighing heavily. The S&P 500, meanwhile, kept climbing, driven by AI excitement and strong performances from tech giants like Nvidia. By August, Bitcoin was still under pressure from global economic worries, including China’s slowdown and trade tensions. The stock market faced challenges too but ended August in the green, helped by tech resilience and hopes that the Fed might ease up.
Historically, June is usually one of the worst months in the crypto market. Most cryptocurrencies drop during the month, while volume typically slips as many investors take a summer holiday break. The average Bitcoin return in June since 2013 is minus 0.34%, while the median is…
— SCOTT ROCK-N- ROLLAAAAAr USA ! (@DOOD825399) June 2, 2025
Looking Ahead: What to Expect This Summer
July has often been a turning point for Bitcoin, bouncing back from a rough June. These recoveries usually follow crypto-specific disruptions like halvings or regulatory shocks. For the stock market, July is a make-or-break month with second-quarter earnings reports often setting the summer’s tone. August tends to be closely watched because of the Federal Reserve Chair’s annual speech at Jackson Hole, where investors look for clues about interest rate moves.
This year, investors are keeping their ears to the ground and their eyes wide open as tensions simmer in the Middle East. A U.S. airstrike on Iran in late June and Tehran’s threat to block the Strait of Hormuz—a vital oil shipping route—have raised the stakes. A ceasefire brokered by former President Donald Trump has collapsed, and both sides are accusing each other of breaking the terms. These flashpoints risk pushing oil prices and inflation higher, which could spook markets far and wide.
Bitcoin’s Growing Role But Still Its Own Beast
Bitcoin has been pulling itself closer to traditional markets through ETFs, big institutional investors, and corporate treasuries. Still, it remains a loose cannon all the same. While stocks typically follow earnings and economic data, Bitcoin remains sensitive to crypto-only events.
Read also: MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin Strategy: Why the Premium Adds Up for Investors
Mark Yusko, founder of Morgan Creek Digital, points out that old market sayings like “sell in May and go away” don’t always hold water for Bitcoin. Even as crypto matures, its biggest tumbles tend to come from inside the tent rather than outside shocks.
