Bitcoin’s path to US$1 million per coin is no longer a fringe idea. Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan has put forward a structured, data-driven case for why experts say Bitcoin could reach US$1 million, built on what he describes as reasonably conservative assumptions about the global store of value market.
Figure 1: Bitcoin cryptocurrency coin representing the digital asset’s role as a store of value. [Courtesy: Freepik]
The commentary, shared on 11 Mar 2026, arrives as Bitcoin trades around US$70,245, still more than 44% below its all-time high of US$126,080 reached in October 2025. The gap between here and US$1 million is significant, but Hougan’s argument is that the math, when applied correctly, makes the target more achievable than it first appears.
The Store of Value Framework Behind the Bitcoin Price Prediction by Bitwise
Hougan Builds the Case From First Principles
The Bitcoin price prediction by Bitwise rests on a straightforward framework. Hougan’s method involves three steps: estimate the total size of the global store of value market, estimate Bitcoin’s share of that market, and divide by 21 million, the maximum supply of Bitcoin that will ever exist.
At present, Bitcoin represents less than 4% of the global store of value market capitalisation of nearly US$40 trillion. At that ratio, Bitcoin would need to capture approximately half of the entire store of value market to reach US$1 million per coin, a figure Hougan acknowledges sounds unreasonable on its surface.
The Store of Value Market Is Not Fixed
The critical variable in Hougan’s argument is that the store of value market is not static. Gold alone has risen approximately 80% over the past year, recently trading around US$5,200 per ounce, bringing its total market capitalisation to approximately US$36 trillion at the time of writing.
Hougan argues that if historical growth rates in the store of value market continue, the total market could reach approximately US$121 trillion within 10 years. At that size, Bitcoin would only need to capture 17% of the market to be priced at US$1 million per coin, a far more plausible scenario than capturing half of today’s market.
Why Experts Say Bitcoin Could Reach US$1 Million?
Institutional Acceptance and ETF Access Are Changing the Asset
Why experts say Bitcoin could reach US$1 million comes down to more than price targets. Hougan points to structural shifts in how Bitcoin is held and perceived. Growing institutional acceptance, the emergence of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, and a gradual decline in volatility are all contributing to Bitcoin’s maturation as an asset class.
Hougan has followed Bitcoin closely since 2018, when the asset was trading around US$4,000 and US$1 million sounded, by his own admission, absurd. His shift in view reflects not wishful thinking but a reassessment of how large the store of value opportunity has become and how much ground Bitcoin has already covered.
Bitcoin Is Still a Young Asset by Any Measure
Hougan is direct about Bitcoin’s current limitations. The asset is less than 20 years old, and expecting it to behave like a fully mature store of value at this stage of its development is, in his view, unreasonable. The rise to US$1 million will come with continued maturation, not in spite of the asset’s youth but as a direct consequence of it growing into its potential.
Figure 2: Conceptual illustration of cryptocurrency trading and market analysis involving Bitcoin price movements. [Courtesy: Freepik]
Bitwise recently predicted that Bitcoin would break its four-year cycle and reach a new all-time high in 2026. Despite a 9% rebound over the past two weeks, the asset remains well below that prior peak, leaving considerable ground to cover before the prediction is validated.
The Risks That Could Derail the Bitcoin Price Prediction by Bitwise
Macroeconomic Conditions Must Cooperate
Is Bitcoin going to hit US$1 million is a question Hougan answers with measured confidence rather than certainty. He is clear that macroeconomic conditions must contribute to the ascent. If the global store of value market stops growing, gold prices retreat, or Bitcoin fails to continue gaining market share, the entire framework that supports the US$1 million target breaks down.
The base case, as Hougan frames it, is that the store of value market continues to grow as it has historically and that Bitcoin continues to gain market share as it has been doing. Under those conditions, he believes prices materially higher than today are not a matter of speculation but a logical outcome of the underlying math.
Bitcoin Remains More Than 44% Below Its All-Time High
Is Bitcoin going to hit US$1 million requires clearing the more immediate hurdle first. At a current price of approximately US$70,245, Bitcoin remains more than 44% below its all-time high of US$126,080 reached in October 2025. Sceptics point to the asset’s history of dramatic drawdowns as evidence that ambitious price targets rarely survive contact with market reality.
Hougan’s response to that scepticism is grounded in the asset’s trajectory rather than its volatility. The same critics who dismissed US$4,000 Bitcoin in 2018 as a speculative curiosity have watched it reach six figures since.
Industry Outlook
The global digital asset market continues to attract institutional capital at an accelerating pace. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have opened the asset class to a broader investor base, and regulatory clarity in several major jurisdictions is reducing the barriers to institutional adoption. The store of value market, historically dominated by gold and sovereign bonds, is increasingly contested by digital assets as a new generation of capital allocators seeks alternatives to traditional safe-haven holdings.
Future Direction and What It Means for Investors
The Bitcoin price prediction by Bitwise is not a short-term call. It is a decade-long thesis built on the continued expansion of the global store of value market and Bitcoin’s ability to capture a growing share of it. Whether Bitcoin reaches US$1 million will depend on institutional momentum, macroeconomic conditions, and the asset’s continued maturation as a globally recognised store of value.
For investors tracking why experts say Bitcoin could reach US$1 million, the Bitwise framework offers a disciplined way to think about the asset’s ceiling. The numbers are large, the timeline is long, and the risks are real, but the underlying logic is harder to dismiss than it once was.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q1. Why do experts say Bitcoin could reach US$1 million?
Ans. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan argues that if the global store of value market grows to approximately US$121 trillion over the next decade, Bitcoin only needs to capture 17% of that market to be priced at US$1 million per coin.
Q2. What is the Bitcoin price prediction by Bitwise based on?
Ans. The Bitcoin price prediction by Bitwise is based on estimating the size of the global store of value market, projecting Bitcoin’s market share within it, and dividing by the maximum supply of 21 million coins.
Q3. Is Bitcoin going to hit US$1 million and when?
Ans. Hougan does not set a precise date but frames the target as achievable over approximately 10 years if store of value market growth continues at historical rates and Bitcoin maintains its market share trajectory.
Q4. What risks could prevent Bitcoin from reaching US$1 million?
Ans. Hougan identifies slowing growth in the store of value market, falling gold prices, and Bitcoin’s failure to gain further market share as the key risks that could prevent the US$1 million target from being realised.
Q5. Where is Bitcoin trading now relative to its all-time high?
Ans. Bitcoin is currently trading around US$70,245, more than 44% below its all-time high of US$126,080 reached in October 2025. Bitwise has predicted Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high in 2026.
Disclaimer
This article is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. All content is based on publicly available information and verified sources. Investing in securities involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Readers should conduct their own research and seek independent financial advice before making any investment decisions. Colitco does not hold any position in the assets mentioned.
Sources
Yahoo Finance:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-bitcoin-path-1-million-212257811.html
Freepik – Bitcoin Cryptocurrency Golden Coin Image
https://www.freepik.com/free-photo/bitcoin-cryptocurrency-digital-money-golden-coin-technology-business-concept_25830709.htm#fromView=image_search&page=1&position=0&uuid=7696b2b7-0e82-4ef5-9ae7-e64ed61655e4
Freepik – Bitcoin Cryptocurrency Trading Illustration
https://www.freepik.com/premium-ai-image/bitcoin-cryptocurrency-investing-crypto-trading-make-profit-earning-from-bitcoin-price_155314124.htm#fromView=search&page=2&position=10&uuid=3ec66a16-0862-47b8-9163-e811c05f0118&query=crypto+trading
