Bitcoin price today stands at $110,781, down 0.81% in the last 24 hours. The asset is 10.8% below its all-time high of $124,224 achieved on August 14, 2025. Against a total supply of 19.92 million and a market capitalization of $2.21 trillion, Bitcoin continues to control 54.62% of the cryptocurrency market while being traded on 1,162 markets.
Short-Term Holder Realized Price as a Pivot
Bitcoin is currently just 1.2% above the short-term holder realized price (STH RP) at $109,400. This is a level which, per analyst Ali on X, has a tendency to act as a line in the sand between bullish continuation and an early bearish signal. Breakdown below this level on a persistent basis has in the past coincided with the onset of broader market stress.
On the 30-minute chart, Bitcoin is consolidating near this support with feeble momentum. The RSI stands at 44.6, reflecting subdued buying strength, while the MACD histogram shows easing bearish pressure but without strong recovery signs. In the meantime, trading volume has tightened, reflecting a lack of conviction on either side.
Source: TradingView
Prior cycles show that consecutive intraday closes below the STH RP have a habit of leaving short-term holders underwater. This tends to contribute to selling pressure, painting larger drawdowns. Bitcoin remains above this line for the time being, but with comparatively little room for error.
Resistance, Support, and Near-Term Risk Zones
Recent attempts to push higher towards $113,000 have been rejected, bringing strong resistance into play. The next upside target remains between $113,000 and $115,000, a zone that would provide room to attempt and rebuild towards prior highs if recovered. Traders will be watching to see if short-term momentum can retest and hold this area.
The bearish situation gets more apparent if $109,400 does not hold. That would leave Bitcoin exposed to liquidity zones between $105,000 and $102,000. Such levels have a tendency to attract stronger trading interest, especially with a backdrop of more overall market uncertainty or weaker sentiment.
Glassnode analytics also identifies realized price milestones that offer longer-term points of reference. The aggregate realized price is near $52,800, while the long-term holder realized price is close to $36,700. Historically, these levels have been associated with more severe cycle corrections but are not near-term trading targets.
Market Context and On-Chain Framework
The market is positioned at a delicate threshold, balancing between continuation and potential breakdown. While the current price remains above the short-term holder realized price, the margin is minimal, keeping volatility risks elevated. Ali’s recent comments emphasized that losing STH often signals the start of bear phases, while long-term cycles usually resolve closer to long-term holder costs.
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The $36,700 range from the long-term holder base shows that broader cycle reset conditions are still not in place. Instead, the market appears determined to maintain the $109,400 support while dealing with overhead pressure near $113,000. A confirmed break beyond either boundary could be what dictates the way for an extended period of time.
Despite short-term uncertainty, Bitcoin fundamentals are solid. Supply remains capped at 21 million, with trading facilitated by 88 exchanges and robust liquidity reflected in $19.12 billion of daily volume. This ensures additional participation while the market probes critical technical levels.
