The current crypto market is playing out in a pattern strikingly similar to the crypto cycle of 2017. According to Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal, macroeconomic data points to a longer, more sustained bull run. He believes the present market could extend its upward trend until Q2 2026 due to various global triggers.
Pal Sees Market Cycle Resemblance with 2017
Pal noticed Bitcoin’s gradual rise throughout 2017 before it skyrocketed in December. Bitcoin began 2017 around $1,044 and reached $14,156 by year’s end, a massive 1,255% rise. He observed that current crypto dynamics, though evolving, follow the same steady growth trajectory. This strengthens the theory that the crypto cycle 2017 pattern is making a return in today’s market.
Macroeconomic Indicators Fueling the Current Surge
The key driver of this extended run is macroeconomic data, Pal explained in a recent video. His business cycle score model shows the global economy is still in an early phase. This model stands below 50, indicating we are not near the top of the economic cycle. It often takes time for the score to rise, thus suggesting more time for crypto to grow. Raoul Pal’s Bitcoin prediction is based on key macroeconomic trends that he believes will extend the current cycle through mid-2026.
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Weakening US Dollar Adds Crypto Appeal
A falling US dollar makes Bitcoin more attractive as both an investment and a currency. Since January 1, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has dropped 8.99%, now sitting at 98.77. Bitcoin and the DXY are known to be inversely correlated in historical data. This decline in the dollar strengthens the idea that the market is far from its peak. Raoul Pal emphasised this relationship in his analysis of the current crypto cycle 2017 pattern.
US dollar declines amid economic uncertainty and inflation concerns.
2020 Market Echoes and New Momentum
Pal compared today’s conditions not to 2021, but more closely to early 2020. In 2020, Bitcoin dropped 27% early in the year, then surged to end at $28,993. That was a 304% annual increase, showcasing market strength in uncertain conditions. This suggests the current phase may be earlier than many investors believe. Macro trends in crypto markets support a longer-term view.
Middle East Embracing Blockchain and Crypto
Pal visited the Middle East recently and noted strong institutional interest in crypto. He mentioned that Sovereign Wealth Funds throughout the region hold bullish outlooks on digital assets. From Saudi Arabia to Qatar, the focus is on AI and blockchain integration. This includes using Bitcoin as a reserve and building systems on blockchain tech. Such developments can attract large capital and push the crypto bull run further.
More Players Needed for Expansion Phase
To maintain momentum, the market must continue to attract significant global investors. Pal believes institutional involvement is key to extending this market cycle. The combination of weakening fiat currencies and strong macro trends crypto supports this outlook. The strategic direction of future technology lies in the advancement of AI and decentralized frameworks such as blockchain.
