Bitcoin’s Bullish July: Will US Jobs Data Lift or Stall the Uptrend?
Bitcoin’s recent performance has given crypto markets something to cheer about. As it powers through June with an eye on fresh July highs, the tone is decidedly optimistic—but cautiously so.
All eyes are now turning to an event outside the crypto sphere: the upcoming US jobs report. Its results could either turbocharge Bitcoin’s ascent or pull the brakes on this bullish ride.
Welcome to the crossroads of digital assets and traditional labour market dynamics.
Bitcoin’s July Rally Hinges on US Jobs Data ( Image Source: Mitrade )
Bitcoin Targets July Breakout
Bitcoin’s price trajectory has shown considerable strength in recent weeks. Many analysts are now entertaining the possibility of it hitting AU$175,000 (approx. US$115,000) by early July.
Fueling this outlook is a mix of strong institutional inflows, consistent demand from ETFs, and rising expectations of a shift in US monetary policy. Speculation is growing that interest rate cuts may be on the horizon, creating favourable conditions for risk assets like Bitcoin.
Recently, BTC reached highs above AU$165,000 before retreating slightly—a move analysts interpret as a healthy correction rather than a reversal.
But the real pivot point lies ahead: the release of the US labour market report.
Bitcoin could rise to $115K if upcoming U.S. jobs report disappoints, say Bitfinex analysts
Bitcoin $BTC could climb to $115,000 or higher by early July under a bullish scenario fueled by growing institutional demand and inflows into spot ETFs, according to analysts at crypto…
— CoinNess Global (@CoinnessGL) June 5, 2025
Jobs Report: The Market’s Silent Puppeteer
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release its closely watched jobs report in early June. At first glance, employment data may seem far removed from cryptocurrency price action. In reality, it holds significant sway.
Here’s why: employment figures influence Federal Reserve decisions on interest rates. A robust report could prompt the Fed to maintain a hawkish stance, reinforcing the strength of the US dollar. That’s typically bearish for Bitcoin, which tends to slide as the greenback rises.
On the other hand, signs of labour market weakness—rising unemployment or a slowdown in hiring—may push the Fed toward rate cuts. That scenario would likely ignite further momentum for Bitcoin.
Also Read: Paul Atkins Champions Clear Crypto Regulation in the U.S.
Current Market Mood: Optimism Prevails
Despite macroeconomic uncertainties, bullish sentiment remains intact in the crypto space. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index currently sits in the “Greed” zone, indicating that investors are still betting on further upside.
The optimism stems from a belief that inflationary pressures are easing and that central banks may soon shift towards more accommodative policies. At the same time, Bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge against economic volatility continues to grow.
Whether it’s geopolitical uncertainty, hesitant central banks, or shaky economic signals—more investors now view Bitcoin as a modern hedge in uncertain times.
A Macro-Fuelled Market
Gone are the days when Bitcoin moved primarily on crypto-specific developments. Today, it dances to the beat of macroeconomic drums.
Inflation reports, GDP trends, and employment figures now command centre stage in driving Bitcoin’s price action.
If June’s jobs data supports the view of a cooling economy, Bitcoin could see a renewed surge into July, possibly breaking the AU$170,000 barrier. However, strong numbers could prompt investors to exit riskier assets in favour of safer havens, pulling Bitcoin lower.
Institutional Inflows Add Stakes
Institutional investment is another factor amplifying the impact of macro data.
In May, Bitcoin ETFs recorded multi-billion-dollar inflows—demonstrating increasing interest from traditional finance. But these players are more sensitive to policy shifts than the average retail investor.
While some may hold long-term, many institutions will adjust their positions based on inflation data, interest rate moves, and yes—labour market reports. A surprise reading could prompt sudden rebalancing, injecting fresh volatility into the crypto market.
Bullish Outlook: The $115K Projection
Despite short-term risks, the broader forecast remains upbeat.
Analysts projecting a bullish July argue that softening labour numbers, dovish Fed commentary, and continued ETF demand could set the stage for Bitcoin to reach AU$175,000 (US$115K). That would mark a major psychological and technical milestone.
Bullish Target: $115K in Sight (Image Source: Binance )
With the Bitcoin halving still fresh and supply tightening, a favourable macro environment could significantly bolster demand.
Bearish Risk: What Could Go Wrong?
However, risks still loom. A stronger-than-expected jobs report could dash hopes of a rate cut and lift the US dollar, dragging Bitcoin with it.
Analysts warn that if that scenario plays out, Bitcoin could retest support levels around AU$155,000 or lower. Such a correction may not end the bull run—but it could delay further upside.
Final Word: Watch the Jobs, Not Just the Charts
Bitcoin’s journey is increasingly influenced by what happens in broader financial ecosystems. And right now, one of the most influential forces is the US employment report—an economic indicator from halfway across the globe.
Whether you’re a seasoned crypto investor or just entering the market, one thing is clear: July could be a pivotal month for Bitcoin.
So, stay alert. This next move in BTC’s price may be sparked not by blockchain innovation—but by a labour update from Washington.
