Bitcoin is holding steady at US$116,000, in accordance with the sudden surge in global liquidity. The trajectory will push the cryptocurrency to US$200,000 by September, particularly with macro conditions continuing to ease and money supply increases becoming more aggressive.
This prediction is predicated on the trend of the M2 money supply, a broad definition of worldwide liquidity. As M2 has risen in the past to highs, so has the Bitcoin price to keep up with some lag of a duration of around 10 weeks. With M2 now standing at more than US $112 trillion, analyst speculation is focused on what they perceive as the next leg higher in Bitcoin’s price.
Bitcoin holds steady at $116K as rising global liquidity fuels bullish sentiment (Image Source: TradingView )
Liquidity has been the dominant theme in financial markets. Central banks around the world have abandoned front-running tightening and, as a result, money is flowing more freely. This has been indicated by M2’s rising to record levels.
As it was in the past, Bitcoin will probably lag behind this liquidity metric. In their opinion, if the pattern holds, the new high in liquidity would bring Bitcoin to the $160K to $200K range within a few months.
Institutional participation is reinforcing this sentiment. Excessive inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs and rising trading in futures markets point to increasing optimism. Open interest in futures has now surpassed more than US $84 billion, and funding rates are positive, traders are going long rather than hedging all their losses.
On-chain indicators enable the bull story to continue. The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) on whether coins are spent at profit or loss is greater than 1.0. It is an indication that most holders are still in the mode of taking profit, without apocalyptically inducing panic selling or rushing to the exits.
This setup is usually found in the early-to-middle phase of a bull run. This would mean that profits are being taken, yet general market sentiment remains positive and long-term in nature.
On the contrary, centralized exchange stablecoin reserves remain elevated at nearly US$47 billion. This is capital that represents unrealised buying power that can very easily return if strength gathers pace.
Technical Patterns Suggest $200K Target
Technically, Bitcoin appears to be holding support on a strong level at the US $116K to $119K levels. Speculators consider this a bullish setup that looks very closely like previous zones of accumulation. These setups in the past would typically be followed by healthy price action to the upside.
Other than that, almost all the technical models are suggesting the Fibonacci extension levels in the area of $180K-$200K. The chartists are keeping a close eye on these prices because they think these are likely to terminate the rallies if the uptrend is to be extended in the current session.
This Bitcoin story is not merely the result of crypto market dynamics, it’s tied to general economic trends. Liquidity has been the primary driver of risk asset performance for years. When global liquidity increases, buyers’ willingness to pay higher prices for assets, and thus Bitcoin, tends to move upward.
Exactly the same argument is being repeated over and over in new reports by major financial institutions. Citi analysts, for example, argue that Bitcoin’s price will meaningfully respond to institutional adoption and improvements in liquidity compared to speculative sentiment alone. The message cannot be clearer: economic context matters as much as crypto-specific drivers.
This formation is not an ascending wedge.
Bitcoin is about to break out of a multi-year channel.
The next leg will be explosive.
Intermediate target: 140k.
Year-end target: 200k. pic.twitter.com/NkftUJUGeh— Stockmoney Lizards (@StockmoneyL) June 30, 2025
Institutions Underpin the Move
We cannot ignore the growing utilization of institutional funds. Whether institutional money managers are allocating to spot ETFs or corporate treasuries are taking on a long Bitcoin position as a reserve asset, the market is maturing.
Other analysts view Bitcoin today as having moved from speculative origins to more of a strategic place in global portfolios. Standard Chartered and Bernstein have placed US $180K to US $200K price targets predicated on institutionally driven demand and tightened supply environment as the primary drivers.
Sovereign interest in Bitcoin is also under discussion more and more. For as long as macro uncertainty persists, rising numbers of countries are said to be looking at digital assets in forward-thinking economic policy.
Also Read: Crypto Prime Brokers Rise As Bitcoin Hits US$120K Bull Run
Risks Remain
All is not rosy, however. Not everyone is happy. Betting markets remain unconvinced, and current odds offer a 14% chance of Bitcoin reaching US $200K within the present year. Traders responded by hedging potential losses, down to US $70K, to be exposed to in the event that sentiment reversed violently or liquidity expansion failed. Other risks come in the form of geopolitically induced disruptions, regulatory tweaks, or sudden ETF inflow declines. Either of which can create volatility or invalidate the current bullish sentiment.
Based on that, consensus is still bullish. Almost every analyst would agree that if global liquidity continues to expand and institutional volume continues to print well, there is more upside to be gained in Bitcoin.
What to Watch Next
This is worth watching closely for traders and investors. Whether Bitcoin hits or does not hit the US $200K mark, there are some things that can impact near-term and intermediate positioning:
- Monitor M2 liquidity trends. Continued expansions will continue to supply risk appetite fodder.
- Monitor funding rates and futures open interest for signs of levered market behavior.
- Monitor stablecoin reserves and SOPR levels to see if capital is set to flow into, or out of, the market.
https://x.com/asifeth/status/1948594223470497939?t=PFY9aAuFefJ63Rgmjk5aLA&s=19
Final Thought: Liquidity Is Maybe the New Kingmaker
Bitcoin’s current price action is not hysteria but global economics. As liquidity continues to increase, assets like Bitcoin can appreciate the same way they have in previous macro cycles.
But whenever and however the $200K target arrives, this year or next, wider context is replete with indications of even greater convergence of financial markets and the crypto universe. Over the longer term, it is not headlines but capital flows that will dictate where the next highs are.
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