France is preparing for a political tempest. Aside from the 2025 general election already looming, the extreme-right National Rally (RN) is not the marginal movement it once was. It’s a growing force that can very well reshape the national political centre.
What started life as a fringe party has become a serious force in French politics. RN’s recent abstention in a no-confidence vote ensured the survival of Prime Minister François Bayrou. But don’t be deceived—it was not a gesture of solidarity. It was a ploy. And it was successful.
France’s far-right picks up momentum ahead of the 2025 french election ( Image Source: AP News )
Marine Le Pen, veteran far-right face, may be banned from running for election, but she is more influential than ever. In the background, she’s orchestrating RN’s transformation into a party that not only shakes up the system, but dominates.
Topping the list is Jordan Bardella, Le Pen’s political heir and the party’s ascendant star. At only 29, Bardella is newly out of university and represents a new face for the RN brand. A genius of online slang, suitably attired, and eloquent, he’s promising to give the party a new face who will bring modernity to the brand without diluting its message.
Polls show higher backing among young voters and disillusioned with mainstream parties. Bardella’s popularity, particularly outside Paris, is rising by leaps and bounds. He is seen by the majority as a new movement from politics’ failed incumbent elite to ease economic strain or address cultural problems.
A Divided National Assembly
Politics in modern France is nothing short of tumultuous. Bayrou’s center bloc has only just at the helm of government without a majority in the National Assembly. The left remains fractured and the right even more so between conservative traditionalists and RN hardline die-hards.
RN has grasped that opportunity. With the ability to turn over and not turn over when they want, they’ve found their trump card. Their recent absence from the no-confidence vote was no expression of trust—rather, it was a warning: they’re playing for time, not coming clean all at once.
Bayrou has a difficult path to follow. If he goes ahead with unpopular cuts in spending to meet budgetary targets, RN and their yes-men can turn and compel snap elections. As the political tides change, RN benefits.
Voters Demand Change
National outrage is spreading throughout the nation. Increasing living standards, fear for public safety, and constant quarrels over immigration are turning voters’ frustration into votes. To some, RN delivers naivety—blush as one may—”where others offer sense or befuddlement.”
RN’s message resonates with working-class suburbs and countryside. “They speak to what worries us,” says Pascal, an auto mechanic from France. “Others patronize us. RN is listening.”
But some are not so confident. Critics are warning that RN’s new face conceals the same old nationalist agendas. “It’s the same old story, new faces,” says Laila, a student at Marseille university. “They’ve just rebranded for the social media generation.”
But that rebranding seems to be working. RN is now seen by many not just as a protest vote, but as a serious government proposition.
France’s far-right National Rally’s Jordan Bardella is not just another politician from an immigrant family who wants to close the door after it is in. Racist and Islamophobic, he distinguishes white Christian immigrants from darker skinned & Muslim ones. https://t.co/tQpIjKNI3E
— Kenneth Roth (@KenRoth) July 6, 2024
A Continent Holding Its Breath
The political direction of France will resonate far beyond its shores. If RN continues to gain strength—much less, wins the next election cycle—it can potentially destabilize the very foundations of the European Union.
Across Europe, leaders in Brussels and Berlin are on high alert. France is the epicenter of EU policy-making, and any substantial change in its stance—on immigration, on climate, on economic integration—will have immediate ripple effects.
Cryptocurrency investors and tech billionaires are looking as well, though. As RN is against further regulation and European centralization, an influx of far-right would either stifle digital finance or bring decentralizing technologies to the mainstream, depending on whether power is wielded.
The 2025 French election is not just another calendrical event—it’s a turning point. The traditional left-right struggle is morphing into something deeper: a struggle of culture and generations for France’s identity, values, and role in the world.
Le Pen is not running, but her legacy is. Now, Bardella—youthful and driven—is reshaping her legacy into something more appealing to a broader audience.
With nearly one-third of the electors stating they’d re-elect RN in the next election, the party is back from the bench. It’s in the center, taking over the national discussion.
What Comes Next?
In the coming months, there are several flashpoints that could turn everything on its head.
And let’s not forget the national budget. Any attempt Bayrou might make to attempt to make serious reductions in spending could lead to a new political crisis. RN might seize on that as the reason to call for an early election.
And then, of course, there is the second round election scenario—bound to find RN facing an hastily cobbled-together centre-left and centre-right coalition. If the anti-RN opposition falls apart, the path might be clear to Bardella as the leader of France.
What next? Historically unprecedented far-right led government would assume power. Immigration policy, national security, the EU and international trade could all be reshaped.
And France, so long champion of liberal democracy in Europe, would be venturing into new uncharted waters.
Final Thoughts
The far-right is no longer shouting from the sidelines—it’s now a central force shaping France’s political future. National Rally’s calculated moves, growing voter base, and rebranded image suggest it’s not just angling for influence—it’s aiming for leadership.
The French election 2025 is shaping up to be one of the most consequential in decades. And whether you’re a voter in Marseille or an investor in Melbourne, the outcomes will matter.
For when turns France, the world in most instances follows.
Read Also: /gold-fields-gold-road-acquisition-2025
