Crypto Traders Are Betting on the Return of Jesus—And It’s Gaining Attention
An unusual market on Polymarket is raising eyebrows: users are betting on whether Jesus Christ will return to Earth by the end of 2025. The prediction platform, which allows people to speculate on real-world events using cryptocurrency, recently posted on X that the odds of Jesus returning this year have climbed to 4%.
While the market might sound bizarre to many, it has already drawn in over $160,000 in trading volume. Most traders are still putting their money on “No,” suggesting they believe the event is highly unlikely. However, interest in the “Yes” side has noticeably increased in recent weeks.
Image 1: Bet on Jesus to return in 2025 (Source: Technext)
Betting on the Divine
Polymarket functions by letting users buy shares tied to future events. If the event happens, those who bet on it receive a payout. If not, those who took the opposing position win. In this case, traders are speculating on whether Jesus will return by 31 December 2025.
An X user, MarkLyck, commented that the market is “hilarious and sad at the same time,” clearly baffled that such a topic was even being bet on. He questioned how something so unlikely could attract serious attention.
Another user, Lord_Wette, expressed concern about the market’s logic, saying he was “scared” that this wasn’t a near-certain “No” across the board. He wondered how a return of Jesus wasn’t being treated as a near-impossible event, saying it should be closer to 99.999999% against.
Despite the doubts, traders continue to treat the market as they would any other. Someone betting on the “No” outcome currently stands to earn a 7.07% annualised return—so long as Jesus does not return this year. That calculation was shared by the betting platform itself on its X page.
Still, MarkLyck argued that this return isn’t high enough to justify locking up funds in such a strange market, especially considering it relies on the assumption that Jesus won’t come back.
He suggested that parking money there might not be worth it. Polymarket responded directly, stating that the return is actually more than 7% annually and reminded users that there are no trading fees on the platform.
How Would This Even Be Decided?
A major question surrounding this market is how the return of Jesus would be defined or verified. Some users have asked whether the criteria would involve a rapture, global announcement, or some other event. Without clear standards, resolving the bet could become complicated.
Another X user explained that people holding “No” shares may eventually want to sell them to free up funds for other trades. As these users cash out, the value of the “Yes” side could rise, allowing some traders to sell their “Yes” shares at a higher price, regardless of their beliefs.
This type of market is rooted in speculation, not religious conviction. Still, it reflects how people are willing to place money on almost anything if it has a perceived value or return.
While Christian teachings often stress that no one can know the exact time of Jesus’ return, some traders believe current global conditions—like war and natural disasters—might indicate the end is near. Whether these views are religious, speculative, or purely for entertainment, the market continues to attract attention.
Image 2: odds on Jesus coming this year increase to 4% (Source: The Cryptonomist)
A Platform on the Rise
Polymarket saw a massive surge in activity in 2024. By the end of the year, it had processed over $9 billion in trades, with November alone hitting a monthly record of $2.63 billion. That was a major leap from January’s total of just $54 million.
The number of active users exploded from just over 4,000 in early 2024 to more than 314,000 by December. While interest dropped slightly after the U.S. election season ended, new markets like sports and now even religious events have kept traders engaged.
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Built on blockchain infrastructure, Polymarket operates as a decentralised finance (DeFi) platform. All trades are publicly recorded, providing transparency that traditional betting sites can’t match. This has helped build trust among crypto users looking for alternative markets.
Despite its success, Polymarket hasn’t avoided trouble. Late in 2024, authorities began investigating the platform, leading to an FBI raid on its CEO. That legal pressure led to slower activity at the beginning of 2025, though the platform still plays a major role in prediction markets.
Even as some shake their heads at the Jesus market, its existence shows just how far prediction markets have evolved. Traders are no longer limited to politics or sport—they’re willing to speculate on the most extraordinary ideas. Whether it’s out of belief or just to chase returns, people are betting. And as long as they are, Polymarket will keep offering markets, no matter how unusual.
