Bitcoin is above US$65,000 again, not because of some on-chain breakthrough or ETF headline, but because the US and Iran managed to not shoot at each other for two whole days. Markets will take what they can get.
It is a bit strange writing a Bitcoin price forecast 2026 USA piece that is really about oil and ceasefires, but here we are. Tensions ease, oil drops, and traders rush back into anything with upside. Same script as always, just a different war this time.
Monday’s Numbers
Bitcoin up by 1.2 per cent, back over US$65,000. Not huge, but enough. Ether did better, up over 3 per cent and knocking on US$1,950’s door.
Solana and XRP came along for the ride too, up a modest 1 to 2 per cent each. Nobody is getting rich off that move, but green is green.
Why Oil Is Doing the Heavy Lifting Here
This is the bit that actually matters, more than any chart pattern anyone is drawing right now. The US and Iran held fire for a second straight day, and oil noticed first.
WTI futures gapped down Monday, off around 5 per cent to roughly US$85. Brent fell 4.7 per cent to US$92.19. When oil moves that fast, everything else recalibrates around it, and this time Bitcoin holds above 65000 USD; analysis is riding shotgun on that recalibration.
Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures ticked up half a per cent. Even the Aussie dollar and euro gained on the greenback. Classic risk-on, across the board.
| Asset | Move (24h) | Level |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | Up 1.2% | Above US$65,000 |
| Ether (ETH) | Up 3%+ | Near US$1,950 |
| WTI Crude | Down ~5% | ~US$85 |
| Brent Crude | Down 4.7% | US$92.19 |
A Ceasefire That is Held for, Checks Notes, Two Days
Worth remembering this thing started back in late February. There was a ceasefire in Q2 that fell apart almost as fast as it came together.
Iran is now saying it’ll keep holding fire as long as the US does the same. That is not peace; that is a truce with an asterisk. Markets are trading it like good news anyway.
What People on Trading Desks Are Actually Saying
Vikram Subburaj, who runs India-based exchange Giottus, put it plainly. Prices are also responding to macro developments, he said, with the Fed meeting sitting right there in the background.
That meeting is on 28 to 29 Jul 2026, and traders are pricing a 36.3 per cent shot at a 25 basis point hike. So you’ve got a ceasefire rally and a rate decision landing in the same week. Messy.
Subburaj also pointed out that Ether’s outperformance might mean something. Could be early rotation into alts, he suggested, though Bitcoin still holds 58.6 per cent dominance. So, early signal, not a trend yet.
The Cycle Theory Crowd Is Still Watching the Calendar
Meanwhile, over on the more chart-obsessed side of crypto Twitter, Joao Wedson from Alphractal is running his own numbers, completely unrelated to any of this ceasefire noise.
His model tracks the gap between a Bitcoin halving and the eventual bear market bottom, historically around 900 days. We’re at day 827 right now. His math points to a possible bottom forming within the next couple of months.
It is a good reminder that the CoinDesk Bitcoin forecast 2026 debate isn’t just one conversation. Some people are watching Iran. Others haven’t looked up from a halving chart in weeks.
The Numbers, One More Time
- Bitcoin (BTC) – back above US$65,000, up around 1.2%
- Ether (ETH) – near US$1,950, up more than 3%
- Bitcoin’s market dominance – 58.6%
- Odds of a Fed hike on 28-29 Jul – 36.3%
Where This Probably Goes Next
Crypto is basically trading like a macro asset now, whether people want to admit that or not. Oil, rate decisions, ceasefires, it is all moving Bitcoin as much as its own cycle used to.
Anyone still building a Bitcoin price forecast 2026 USA off halving charts alone is missing half the picture. The next couple of weeks, Fed decision plus whatever happens with Iran, will probably tell us more than any indicator will.
ALSO READ: Bitcoin Slides as Legislative Hopes Fade
FAQs
Q1. Why did Bitcoin jump back above US$65,000?
Ans. Mostly because oil tanked after the US and Iran stopped exchanging fire, and traders went risk-on.
Q2. Is Ether beating Bitcoin right now?
Ans. Yes, up over 3 per cent versus Bitcoin’s 1.2 per cent.
Q3. What is the Fed got to do with any of this?
Ans. Markets are pricing a 36.3 per cent chance of a rate hike on 28-29 Jul, right alongside the ceasefire rally.
Q4. What is this four-year cycle thing everyone keeps mentioning?
Ans. One analyst’s model says Bitcoin might hit its cycle bottom within the next two months, based on past halving patterns.
Disclaimer
This article is meant only for informational purposes. All data published in this content is sourced from CoinDesk and external market sources. Kindly verify all information related to price and market data before making any decisions. Any investment should be made at the investor’s own risk. Crafmin does not hold any position in the assets mentioned above.
